Wednesday, March 30, 2011
“Oh Jake,” Brett said, “we could have had such a damned good time together.”
Ahead was a mounted policeman in khaki directing traffic. He raised his baton. The car slowed suddenly pressing Brett against me.
“Yes,” I said, “Isn’t it pretty to think so?”
--Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
To the extent we have a dog in the fight that is Libya, President Obama did a good job of presenting his case: “Gaddafi declared that he would show ‘no mercy’ to his own people…if we waited one more day, Benghazi—a city nearly the size of Charlotte [700,000 people]—could suffer a massacre that would have reverberated across the region, and stained the conscience of the world.” Additionally, such a massacre would have driven “thousands of additional refugees across Libya’s borders, putting enormous strains on the peaceful—yet fragile—transitions in Egypt and Tunisia.” With the support of a United Nations Mandate, and working with NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), western Europe, a few Islamist nations (Turkey, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates), and some vagaries from the Arab League, the US is 1) NOT engaged in unilateral action, and 2) effectively blocking Gaddafi’s counter attacks on the rebels.
My Big Fat Greek Gripe
I fall into the group of people who oppose any outside military action in Libya. So far, after an extensive survey, I seem to be the only person on the planet (besides Colonel Gaddafi) who feels that way. President Obama chides me for asserting that I am creating a “false choice” for intervention, “even in limited ways.” Spoil sports like me are quick to point out—in the President’s words—that “there are many places in the world where innocent civilians face brutal violence at the hands of their government,” and the US cannot bomb every one of those nations.
The problem with me, according to President Obama, is that simply pointing out how life is still nasty, brutish, and short for most of the planet “cannot be an argument for never acting on behalf of what’s right.” This newly formed Coalition had a “unique ability to stop that violence,” and therefore grabbed at that chance.
Here’s what is not progress: we are bombing largely civilian populations in a “nation” where no one can be certain what is happening. That’s bad.
In sum, here’s my beef. First, before we talk about a “massacre that would reverberate across the region,” how about looking at a few regional massacres that not only failed to reverberate, but left no stain anywhere—let alone on the world’s conscience. Second, America has once again wheeled out our goldfish-like memory (ie it lasts for all of three seconds), showing willful ignorance as to what “Libya” is, and how the Middle East got to be the way it is. Finally—and most importantly—despite professed good intentions every time, the track record of America’s military interventions are abysmal.
Forget Ozzy--Hama Rules!
In Longitudes and Attitudes, Thomas Friedman’s 2002 published collection of his New York Times columns post September 11, one of the first essays is “Hama Rules.” Hama was (past tense intentional) the fourth largest city in Hafez al-Assad’s Syria. In February 1982, Islamists extremists were trying to topple Assad’s dictatorship. Believing the roots of this incipient rebellion to be in Hama (rightly, but even if he was wrong, that was beside the point), Assad pounded the entire city with artillery for days. Once the city was flattened (metaphorically), Assad flattened what was left (literally) with bulldozers. Amnesty International estimated that between 10,000 and 25,000 Syrians were killed.
Friedman describes how he visited the former city, and how far from hiding this atrocity, Assad WANTED Syrians to visit the site. Assad had a message he wanted to deliver, about the consequences of organized opposition. “This was ‘Hama Rules’—the real rules of Middle East Politics,” Friedman concludes, “and Hama Rules are no rules at all.” Prior to reading Friedman’s book, I had never heard of Hama. No reverberations, no stain.
Here’s a massacre I have heard of, though. Between September 16 and 18 1982, the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps in Lebanon were surrounded by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). The IDF allowed Christian Lebanese Phalangists to enter the camps, and slaughter between 800 and 3,500 civilians. Israel responded by creating the Kahan Commission, to determine who was responsible for the slaughter. The Commission concluded that Israel bore “indirect responsibility,” that then Defense Minister Ariel Sharon “bears personal responsibility,” and that Sharon should be immediately dismissed from his post as Defense Minister. After reading the Kahan Commission report, Mr. Sharon became so chagrined, he left politics altogether, becoming a recluse too ashamed to show his face in public—because he reverberated from the stain he left on the world’s conscience. Well, sort of: Sharon refused to leave the cabinet, then Prime Minister Begin refused to fire him, and Sharon went on to become Prime Minister, eventually dying in that office (massacre reverberations & staining notwithstanding).
I could do this all day (see, e.g. Lebanon, the Jordanian Civil War, Afghanistan, etc etc), but I trust you get the idea. Here’s my point: don’t shame me for being a Hard Hearted Hannah, hoping on the outside chance that I haven't noticed an endless parade of massacres.
There is a reason why the “middle east” (roughly from Morocco to Afghanistan) is screwed up. Back in the day, the United States decided to support the imperialist ambitions of Western Europe, and oppose the indigenous anti-colonial movements. Hoping to piss off the US, the Soviet Union supported the anti-colonial movements, thus turning those movements into “socialists” (unspecified). Once the colonial regimes collapsed, the new secular dictators (Egypt’s Gamal Nasser, et al) claimed to be “socialist,” because that was the secret word that made the Soviet duck drop down and give you money cf Groucho Marx’s You Bet Your Life. Now, the Americans and British did not like those professed “socialist” dictators, preferring dictators “capitalist” (whatever that meant). So, the US and UK started building up various fundamentalist Islamist movements, because the secular dictators could not easily suppress an Islamist-based movement (if you’re even vaguely interested in this history, Robert Dreyfuss’s Devil’s Game: How the United States Helped Unleash Fundamentalist Islam is an excellent book). Which then brings us to where we are today: crappy former socialist dictators, insurgent Islamist movements, and a generation of hip hop groovy cats from Nowsville unwilling to tolerate fifty years of economic stagnation.
“If You Don’t Know Where You’re Going, You’re Going to Wind Up Someplace Else”
So says my favorite Hegelian philosopher, Casey Stengel. What’s the problem with intervening in the Arab world? For starters, they only all LOOK alike (even the Iranians, who aren't even Arabs). But they're not all alike. I can’t give you the link, because a green curtain has descended over the New York Times (ie you need to pay to peek), but Thomas Friedman’s column on March 22, “Tribes with Flags,” was especially helpful.
Mr. Friedman quotes Mr. David Kirkpatrick, the Cairo bureau chief for The New York Times, asking rhetorically “is the battle for Libya the clash of a brutal dictator against a democratic opposition, or is it fundamentally a tribal civil war?” There’s a big difference between the two. Friedman identifies two different types of states in the Middle East. One he calls “real countries,” because they have “long histories within their borders, and strong national identities.” In that group, Friedman places Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, and Iran. The second group, Friedman calls “Tribes with Flags.” Those “states” have boundaries drawn by colonial powers, containing “myriad tribes and sects who not only never volunteered to live together, but have never melded into a unified family of citizens.” What does that mean? That means those nations are more confederations of rival gangs, under the direction of an overlord. Why is that bad? Because those states have no real national identity or consciousness. In other words, democracy a la one person, one vote is virtually impossible, because each tribe holding power (in Friedman’s phrase) “lives by the motto ‘rule or die’ — either my tribe or sect is in power or we’re dead.” So who all are the Tribes with Flags? Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Bahrain, Yemen, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates—and Libya.
What do we know about the rebel opposition in Libya? Here’s a hint: it rhymes with “nothing.” What do we know about Gaddafi? Well, he's clearly not the James Madison of the Arab world—but that’s the wrong measure. Is Libya a nice place to live, especially if you are a woman? No. But I would argue, by any measure, day to day life is much worse in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia (especially if you are a woman), than it is in Libya. For many years, almost alone in the Arab world, Libya was reclaiming land from the Sahara Desert, taking concerns over their environment seriously. Additionally, Libya was more “westernized” in terms of education, and allowing some individual freedom in cultural areas—such as modes of dress.
Am I saying Colonel Gaddafi is like Abe Lincoln, only more honest? Absolutely not. For example, Libyans really suffered through Gaddafi’s long and pointless wars, trying to annex Chad. Still, you could do much worse. No, Libya has not been a paragon of progress over the last forty years of Gaddafi’s dictatorship. Nevertheless, prior to Gaddafi’s coup when he seized power, Libya was in far worse shape.
In conclusion, what I (me, personal) want is that in addition to asking “will the US intervention in Libyan save the people of Benghazi from a massacre?”, someone (somewhere) will think to ask “will US intervention in Libya result in massacre of the people of Tripoli?”
(An answer to the second question would also be nice).
First, Do No Harm
Much of President Obama’s speech included affirmations of what good people Americans are, with the best citizens, the best soldiers, the best diplomats…As a group, we’re good enough; we’re smart enough; and dog gone it, people like us! And why not? Face to face, we’re just plain good folks. Which is really a problem, because the further away people get from sitting down and having coffee with us, the bigger the bastards we really are.
Moving to South America, “September 11” means something completely different in Chile. On September 11 1973, a US engineered coup d’etat destroyed the region’s longest running Constitutional democracy, with the military bombing the Presidential Palace. Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Peru, Columbia…you pick any place you want, they’ve all had at one time or another vicious police states, largely created and maintained with US support. What is it like living under such a regime? Try reading Jacob Timerman's Prisoner without a Name, Cell without a Number.
Where has US military invention not made a bad situation worse? Not Vietnam, Laos, or Cambodia. Afghanistan is another nation that has suffered unimaginable devastation, beginning in 1978 when President Carter began supporting what would become al Qada and the Taliban, in an effort to needle the Soviets.
Need one more illustration? Me neither, but here goes: this month we celebrated the eighth anniversary of the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. President Obama gave a rough cost estimate of one trillion USD, which I think is low. But even at one trillion, how big a number is that? The 2009 estimates of Iraq’s population are roughly 31 million people (four times the size of New York City), with a gross domestic product (2009 estimate) of $111 billion USD (adjusted for purchasing power parity. If you care what all that means exactly, hit the link and read all about it at Wikipedia). That trillion dollars breaks down to approximately $30,000 per Iraqi—in a nation where the per capita income is $3,570. MAYBE it wouldn’t have worked, but for the same money, President Bush could have announced that if only everyone in Iraq promised to stay home, watching television and stop supporting the government, America would pay everyone’s bills for the next eight years. Saddam Hussein still might have been able to hold on to power—but that plan beats the hell out of anything Paul Bremer’s Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) ever came up with.
But by any measure, the Iraq invasion and occupation was not money well spent.
Which brings to mind another column by Mr. Friedman. On March 29 (“Lucking for Luck in Libya”), Mr. Friedman concedes he doesn’t know Libya, but:
"[M]y gut tells me that any kind of decent outcome there will require boots on the ground — either as military help for the rebels to oust Qaddafi as we want, or as post-Qaddafi peacekeepers and referees between tribes and factions to help with any transition to democracy. Those boots cannot be ours. We absolutely cannot afford it — whether in terms of money, manpower, energy or attention. But I am deeply dubious that our allies can or will handle it without us, either. And if the fight there turns ugly, or stalemates, people will be calling for our humanitarian help again. You bomb it, you own it."
When President Obama says “[G]iven the costs and risks of intervention, we must always measure our interests against the need for action. But that cannot be an argument for never acting on behalf of what’s right,” he has a point. But an even better point would be to look at the probable consequences before we leap, maybe even before deciding “what’s right.”
So no, Mr. President, I am not convinced bombing Libya—even with a UN mandate and the support of a genuine coalition—is the right thing to do. Yes, that is terrible the threat to Benghazi; but do not act like that is any more of an extraordinary situation than what it is. Or that if push came to shove, the exact same situation wouldn't arise in Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Sudan, Pakistan...(you get the idea). Second, there are no easy answers in that region, especially in Libya. Pretending that there are will hurt not only us, but especially hurt the Libyans. And finally, America’s record of military intervention is nothing short of disastrous.
I just don’t see a way (but I could be wrong) that innumerable Tomahawk missiles could possibly save the day for democracy in Libya.
But isn’t it pretty to think so?
And Now For Something Completely Bent
While President Obama did not sway me with his clear, and carefully thought out address, I can still say that I respectfully disagree with him—which is way more than I can say, regarding the responses from the potential GOP Presidential Candidates of 2012. Our friends atPolitico (speaking euphemistically) document their uniform (if less than coherent) condemnation. Private Citizen Sarah Palin (always one of my favorites) calls President Obama’s speech “dodgy and dubious” (maybe one or the other, but certainly not both!), and coloured herself “profoundly disappointed:” the President “did not articulate really what our purpose was except for some inconsistent humanitarian effort there…He did not make the case for this intervention.” Does that mean Private Citizen Palin agrees with me, and thinks we should not have intervened in Libya? Beats me. Last week, Palin denounced the President for “dithering.”
Rudy Giuliani, operating behind enemy lines on CNN, said that “the President’s speech tonight has made things even murkier than they were before…The whole purpose of this was to clarify our mission. Our mission is just internally contradictory.” NOTE: Mr. Giuliani did NOT say that he was personally hurt and offended that President Obama did not ONCE reference the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center, but you know Giuliani was thinking it.
Commenting on the speech before the President gave it, Professional Empty Suit Tim Pawlenty said that a “no fly” zone should have been set up “sooner” than the time needed by President Obama: “They could have pushed [Gaddafi] out without much fanfare, I think, without much difficulty…They [the White house?] were indecisive and it (unspecified) lacked leadership in that moment.” Granted, Pawlenty is just nuts. If the US just unilaterally ran out and imposed a “no fly zone” (whatever that means) in Libya, that would have been an act of war, and a violation of he UN Charter. And forcing Gaddafi out of Tripoli without much difficulty or fanfare? Look what it took to get Norm Coleman out of the US Senate, for gods’ sake.
But I’ll give Pawlenty this much: he did say something concrete. Sure, it was stupid, but at least you see where he disagrees with the President. If you look at the statements of Palin, Giuliani, Bolton, and even Newt Gingrich, it is hard to tell where they disagree with the President—but they sure feel strongly about their disagreement. Do they want no intervention? Or do they want more intervention, including ground troops? Or are they opposed to the idea of a joint mission, preferring the US to do all the heavy lifting, militarily and financially? If you can tell, you’re smarter than I am (you probably are, anyway).
The single most mortifying news of the night, though, was the ugly spectre of the don Don Trump SEEMINGLY agreeing with me. Also on CNN, don Don expressed concern about who was supporting the Libyan rebels: “I really do want to know these people we’re fighting for, who they are…They call them the rebels like they’re these wonderful guys, but I hear they’re aligned with Iran, I hear they may be aligned with al Qaida…and to be honest, wouldn’t that be really very very sad if we’re bombing all of these things, killing all of these people one way or the other, and Iran ends up taking over Libya?” Yes Don, that would not just be merely sad or even very sad or even very, very sad. That would truly and sincerely be REALLY VERY, VERY SAD.
What’s even sadder, though, is The Don must be listening to The Little Man Inside his Pants again, because I am wholly at a loss as to who else would have told The Don that the anti-Gaddafi forces were Iranian or al Qaida affiliates.
What could go wrong, indeed...
In an effort to destroy what little interest there is in my notes, the powers that be don't allow pictures as thumbnails. Believing that the only possible reason for even scrolling to the end of this note (forget reading it) would be to download pics of Ms. Abbe Lane, copies suitable for downloading (if not framing) can be found at Hemingway in Libya.
Sunday, February 13, 2011
The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) just finished their big party in Washington, with their ever-popular Presidential Straw Poll that always seems to say more than what anyone at CPAC really intends. Clocking in at thirty percent of the vote, and with the gold, was the hip hop happening groovy cat from Nowsville: Ron Paul, the 75 year old Texas congressman and iconic pop star. Second place, with twenty-three percent, went to Mitt Romney. Former Governor Romney would like everyone to believe the he is on your side. Really. No matter what side that is. Mitt Romney: Change You Can Believe In (because if you don’t, he’ll be happy to change again).
To the extent there was a bronze medalist—and there wasn’t—the winner probably would have to be former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, with six percent. Heard of him? Me neither. Also with six percent was new New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who keeps insisting he’s not running for President (some people think he’s just a big liar). Rounding up the also-rans were Newt Gingrich, Private Citizen Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, and (presumably) Rick Santorum—all polling less than five percent each.
So—what’s the problem, and more to the point, why should anyone care? Here’s why: the results of the straw poll shows that CPAC’s professed unity lies somewhere just beyond theLost Horizon. And there’s no spinning that straw into a precious metal.
As Rick Santorum and his stool (an expression that sounds dirty, but isn’t really) so eloquently put it, the CPAC people would have you believe that the American conservative movement are three legs on that stool: the deficit hawks, the social conservatives, and “national security” people. By braiding those three strands together, conservatives will create a rope so strong, no liberal could possible break it. Too bad conservatives just go on to use that self-same rope to hang themselves.
Why? Because those three positions (social conservatives, fiscal conservatives, and national security conservatives) are largely mutually exclusive. The only point they have in common are amorphous yet meaningless platitudes about “freedom,” and a shared hagiography for a Ronald Reagan that never existed.
For example, look at the “freedom” promised by the social conservatives: government restrictions on abortion, government restrictions on same-sex marriage, government restrictions medical marijuana…oh, and less government. But you get the idea: for the social conservative, “freedom” means that you get to believe what THEY believe. The counter-argument, that “liberals” are forcing their views on the social conservative, is specious. You don’t believe in abortion? Fine—no one’s forcing you to have one. You don’t want to marry someone who shares a gender with you? No problem! But there is no principled reason for you to deny that option to someone else. And if you prefer the medical effects of cherry brandy to marijuana, go for it. No one’s making you to listen to Workingman’s Dead.
But how well do the sentiments of the social conservatives fly with the libertarian wing, the most vocal of the deficit hawks? How well? Not well! (to coin a phrase). The deficit hawks who want a smaller federal government get upset (understandably) about the federalization of petty crime, and the growth of the police state. Why? In part, because they know how to count: the thirty plus years of the War on Drugs is still waiting for its first even small success. And talk about a ballooning federal government, just look at Department of Homeland Security: the last thing we need are more federal officials, telling us what to do and how to live our lives. But when you’re talking about real dollar amounts going right down the rat hole, look at thatthree trillion dollar (USD) war in Iraq, and its cousin in Afghanistan.
That’s when the third strand jumps up and yells “no, don’t look there!” John Boehner’s House Republicans insist they want to cut $100 billion USD from President Obama’s budget—while raising Defense (a brand, not unlike the “fruit” in Froot Loops) spending by two percent. To paraphrase George Bernard Shaw: the government that cuts domestic programs at the expense of Peter to benefit Paul can always count on the support of Paul. Which accounts for the popularity of such noted fiscal conservatives as Ted Stevens and Mitch McConnell: when it came to Alaska and Kentucky (respectively), they spent like the proverbial drunken sailors. Maybe people in Red States think all those cuts will only hurt the communists inhabiting Blue soviet strongholds, like California, Oregon, New York, parts of New England—but that’s not the way it works. Just like you can’t have your cake etc, you can’t have idiotic missile defense programs all over the planet, and balance your budget.
So, given largely mutually exclusive positions, what happened at CPAC? They played the old Arab game of the enemy of my enemy is my friend. The Patient Protection and Affordability Act and the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010 (together aka ObamaCare) was roundly demonized. Left unmentioned was any kind of alternative, viable or otherwise. Also denounced was President Obama’s terrible record on foreign policy and the fact he’s Soft on Islamofascism (well, maybe not in so many words—but you knew that’s what they meant).
Interestingly, the only person who talked about the Egyptian Revolution (happening at the same time as the CPAC conference) was troublemaker Ron Paul. Congressman Paul excoriated thirty years of American foreign policy, for propping up and preserving the incompetent rule of Hosni Mubarak, condemning same as immoral, bad politics, and really just a plain waste of money. Everyone else either avoided the topic altogether, or followed the lead of Mitch McConnell, who on January 26 told MSNBC “All I can say this morning is that Egypt has been an extremely important ally of ours, since Anwar Sadat, and we’re all watching these developments in Cairo very carefully. Beyond that, I think I will not comment.” Sure—because maybe MAYBE Mubarak was right, all those years, how he was the only thing holding back a Sunni nationalist Muslim Brotherhood fundamentalist Islamic al Qaida inspired Arab Egyptian Shiite Ayatollah Khomeini, who would drive Israel into the sea, then invade…I don’t know…Florida! You never know… Those brown people are notorious for voting for the wrong people. And that’s EXACTLY the kind of government President Obama would install in Egypt, as Michelle Bachman would be happy to tell you…if she were commenting on the Egypt thing—which she’s not.
But clearly—the high point (or low point, if you’re not brimming with schadenfreude) had to have been when the “Defenders of the Constitution” award was given to Donald Rumsfeld. What had former Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld done to defend the Constitution, at least lately? Well—he did write that book of his. That’s kind of First Amendmenty. Other than that, Secretary Rumsfeld did plow new ground—Constitutionally speaking—by introducing torture, “extraordinary rendition,” detention without trial in a system of gulags around the world, obstruct justice by covering up the murder of civilians, new levels of lying to Congress, invasion of member states of the United Nations (both in violation of the Charter, and the Nuremberg and Tokyo precedents condemning waging aggressive war). He also so mismanaged both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars to the point he almost lost them—but I’m not sure what impact that has on the Constitution; it just really pisses me off, though. Congressman Ron Paul’s people roundly booed both the Donald (No--the Secretary, not that other guy), and the award’s presenter: former Vice President Dick Cheney (what—Ted Kaczynski and Eric Robert Rudolph weren’t available to present the award to each other?), because both Cheney and Rumsfeld wasted lots of money.
But here’s my point: Senator DeMint, Governor Mike Huckabee, and Private Citizen Palin opted not to attend CPAC, because while all three constantly squawk about freedom like deranged parrots, the “libertarian bent” to CPAC just plain goes too far. For example, what was the big controversy at CPAC? The gay Republican group, GOProud were just not self-hating enough. And you remember New Mexico’s ex-Governor Gary Johnson, the man of bronze in the straw poll? The primary theme of his CPAC speech was legalization of marijuana, no doubt sweeping the Rastapublican vote.
So, what’s a principled conservative to do? How about stop pretending that social conservatives, libertarian budget cutters, and national security stooges are all brothers (even the women) under the skin, and want the same thing. They don’t. Mike Huckabee is not Ron Paul is not John Bolton, and they never will be. Conservatives, IMHO, will be better served to pick one of Rick Santorum’s stools, and run with it. Otherwise, if you try to embrace all three, you’ll just sound confused and wind up not standing for anything. In other words, you’ll be like Democrats.
Will CPAC ever decide to be principled, and do more than just mouth platitudes and spit insults, all in the name of a non-existent “Party Unity”?
No. They are just stoopid.
To find full size versions of pics illustrating this note (which is the only reason why anyone comes here), you can go to This Week in Stoopid: CPAC